DIAGNOSTICS, MODELING, AND MANAGERIAL DECISIONS FOR THE PURPOSES OF ENTERPRISE CRISIS MANAGEMENT

Abstract

The article examines the theoretical and practical foundations of crisis management in enterprises under conditions of economic instability and systemic shocks. Special attention is paid to the application of diagnostic tools for assessing the financial condition, modeling the probability of bankruptcy, and using analytical methods as a basis for managerial decision-making. The methodology combines financial diagnostics with PEST and SWOT analyses, which makes it possible to identify both external threats and internal opportunities for development. The case of an enterprise operating in the production of building materials, particularly thermal insulation products, is used to illustrate the implementation of crisis management instruments. The study demonstrates that a comprehensive analysis of the enterprise’s assets and capital, liquidity, profitability, and financial stability provides a solid foundation for effective crisis response. Modeling scenarios of bankruptcy risk contributes to the anticipation of potential challenges and enables proactive strategies to avoid negative outcomes. PEST analysis highlights the political, economic, social, and technological factors influencing the enterprise, while SWOT analysis allows the identification of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in a structured way. The integration of these methods supports the development of managerial guidelines aimed at short-term risk mitigation and long-term recovery. The results show that diagnostics and modeling should be regarded not only as supporting instruments but also as core elements of the enterprise’s adaptive management system. The proposed approach can be applied not only to enterprises in the construction materials sector but also to companies from other industries that face similar crisis phenomena. The findings contribute to the improvement of managerial practice by combining analytical rigor with practical applicability. Thus, the article provides scientific and applied value, offering recommendations for enterprises seeking to strengthen resilience, improve competitiveness, and design strategies for sustainable growth in post-crisis conditions.