INNOVATION-DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF PHARMACEUTICAL BUSINESS IN UKRAINE: ECONOMIC TRENDS AND ECOSYSTEM FACTORS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32689/2523-4536/82-2Keywords:
pharmaceutical business, innovation development, pharmaceutical market, innovation ecosystem, research and development, open innovation, forecasting, exponential smoothingAbstract
The object of the study is the economic processes of innovation-driven development of pharmaceutical business in Ukraine under changing market capacity, demand structure and inter-organizational interaction. The problem is the divergence between nominal pharmacy-market growth and declining physical sales of medicines. Verified PharmXplorer data show that in 2021–2025 retail medicine sales rose from UAH 110.56 to 171.74 billion (+55.3%), while unit sales fell from 1,067.7 to 804.4 million packs (−24.7%) and the average value per pack increased by 106.2%. A damped-trend exponential smoothing model developed by Everette Gardner Jr. and Ed McKenzie was used for the medium-term forecast. The baseline projection reaches UAH 221.9 billion in 2030, with annual growth slowing to 2.8%. Ecosystem interaction among pharmaceutical companies, research institutions, technology providers, investors, regulators and healthcare actors is interpreted as an economic mechanism for reducing transaction costs, sharing innovation risks and accelerating commercialization. The results can support innovation portfolio design, research and development planning, partnership decisions and investment prioritization.
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