USING A SYSTEMATIC APPROACH IN FORECASTING AND PLANNING FOREIGN POLICY OF UKRAINE

Abstract

The article defines the problems of the development of mechanisms, tools, technologies, forms and rules for the formation of Ukraine’s foreign policy, because in modern conditions of instability and uncertainty in all spheres of public life – this is one of the priority areas of this activity. Therefore, the priority task in the international space is to search for effective mechanisms and establish a really effective model for solving domestic political problems, which could be extrapolated to an effective solution to foreign policy problems. This contributed to the definition of the goals of the article, namely, to reveal the role of a systematic approach for the development of an effective foreign policy of the state based on forecasting and planning methods. Since the foreign policy of the state is developed for a rather long period, it becomes essential to determine the strategic direction of its development, and under such conditions, the need for speed of decision-making in the choice of alternatives increases, and more. On the one hand, it becomes easier to form effective decisions and the corresponding state foreign policy, because today we receive a large amount of data and information quickly, however, on the other hand, among the large amount of information there is not so much information that can actually be used to make decisions. ... Also, we can say that digitalization is not yet widespread in Ukraine’s foreign policy, although data and information are becoming the main engine of the decision-making process all over the world. Planning for transformation, which will entail “undermining” the old paradigms of thinking, requires the study of innovative models, the search for new sources of revenue generation, and the forecasting of possible directions for the implementation of managerial influences. It is proposed to consider the processes of formation (development) of foreign policy from the point of view of a systems approach and systems theory, since understanding the general patterns in the structure and functioning of systems makes it possible to predict their actions, to foresee the stages of development. Thus, the article proposes a model for the formation of the state’s foreign policy based on a systematic approach using forecasting and planning methods, which indicates the relationship between the conditions for implementing a forecast and its goals, as well as the relationship between forecasting and decision-making. The decision is usually made based on forecasting data. In turn, the decisions made affect the results of the forecasts.