RESEARCH OF THE CONSUMER PRICES INDEX DYNAMICS IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The consumer price index is one of the basic macroeconomic indicators that characterize the dynamics of changes in price for goods and services purchased by the population for non-productive consumption. It is an indicator of the state and efficiency of the country's economy. The article studies inflationary processes in Ukraine and analyzes the dynamics of the consumer price index in Ukraine since 1996. In addition, it investigates the nature of the change in this indicator because of the beginning of the war. Occupation of part of the territories of Ukraine, massive devastation (destruction of the infrastructure of cities and villages, destroyed logistics of internal and external trade), environmental disasters (pollution of water bodies, felling and burning of forests, mining of fields for sowing, agricultural land), loss of jobs and closure of businesses, forced mass migration of the population, psychological factors (panic of the population, fear, feeling of hopelessness) - all this intensified the crisis phenomena in the economy. The article includes the list of products whose prices rose the most in 2022. Among food products, prices for eggs, fruit, fish, and soft drinks rose the most. At the same time, fuel, and lubricants are leading the way in terms of price growth among non-food products. Mathematical analysis of the consumer price index was carried out using exponential smoothing, which belongs to adaptive forecasting methods. This method's main idea lies in smoothing each level of the time series, using a moving average with weights that follow an exponential distribution law, i.e. as the levels move away from the beginning of the series, the influence of the levels increases. This makes the forecast more sensitive to new data. Coefficients of the quadratic linear trend, calculated by the method of least squares, were used to calculate the exponential averages, on the basis of which the smoothed values of the levels of the series are calculated. This article also includes the adjusted parameters of the quadratic model, the approximation graph, and the calculated correlation coefficient. The results of this research show that due to the negative trends of recent periods, the adaptive forecast has reacted to this change and showed an increase in the level of inflation in the following years as well. It is worth mentioning that the consumer price index is an indicator that is very sensitive to economic fluctuations. As a result, the victory of Ukraine in the war and the beginning of the reconstruction of the country are supposed to change the trend that existed in recent years. Keeping track of which products are experiencing the highest price increases can help you plan your purchases more efficiently to reduce costs and save money.