THE STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF FORCED MIGRATION PROCESSES ON PARTICULAR SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS OF TERRITORY SECURITY BASED ON NEURAL NETWORKS

Abstract

The paper deals with the topical problem of studying the impact of migration processes of internally displaced persons on certain sociodemographic indicators of regional security. This problem became particularly important after the beginning of armed aggression on the territory of Ukraine in 2014, which led to a rapid increase in internal migration processes. In particular, the dynamics of change of the following indicators was analysed: demographic burden, unemployment rate, the volume of remittances and proximity to the line of demarcation. As a result of the study, the author constructed a neural network of the Korhonen map type. The model divided the training sample from the regions of the country into six clusters according to the level of four indicators of socio-demographic security. This allowed us to assess the impact of forced internal migration on some aspects of socio-economic security of the regions. Based on the obtained Korhonen map, it is shown that the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, which directly border the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) zone, had a catastrophic increase in the demographic burden and unemployment rate during the study period. The volume of remittances of migrants has also decreased several times. The level of socio-economic security of the regions of the sixth cluster was selected as dangerous according to the selected indicators. The obtained results can be used for the formation of regional socio-economic policy and the corresponding national demographic and migration policy. The cluster analysis process and the proposed system of indicators make it possible to constantly monitor and assess the impact of forced internal migration processes on certain aspects of socio-economic security of regions.