IMAGINATION, ARCHETYPES AND SOCIAL FORECASTING: OPPORTUNITIES AND LIMITATIONS OF APPLICATION

Abstract

The article deals with the problem of information and analytical support of public administration in terms of social forecasting. The following problematic cross-sections are highlighted, which are especially important for Ukraine as a country that is in a state of prolonged societal crisis and against which it must respond to today’s post-pandemic challenges. The first cross-section concerns the development of psychologically sound strategies and technologies of crisis management, which characterizes the ability of the public administration to a forward-looking vision and strategic thinking. The second cross-section concerns the development of psychologically sound approaches to the implementation of social forecasting. Both problem cross-sections are interdependent and condition each other, and, at the same time, need to be clarified in terms of actualization of their actual socio-psychological validity. Thus, the problem that determines the purpose of the proposed article is to outline the possibilities and limits of the application of psychological approaches in social forecasting (on the example of G. Durand’s social archetypes and sociology of the imaginary). The results of the study suggest that the development of the forecast must consider not only the characteristics of a situation but also the appropriate (characteristic of the situation) psychological state of social groups and communities. Given that the forecast can perform both a preventive and motivational function, underestimating the importance of analysing the irrational sphere of mass (collective) consciousness in the unity of its conscious and unconscious components may be unjustified negligence. Considering the motivational component of human behaviour, which is influenced by both conscious and unconscious components, can significantly expand the methodological arsenal of prognosis. In turn, this actualizes the request for generalization of the best practices of socio-psychological science and the definition of psychological principles in predicting social processes, which requires further painstaking work.