SCENARIOS OF TRANSFORMATION OF POLITICAL SYSTEMS IN CRISIS CONDITIONS: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32689/2523-4625-2025-2(78)-10Keywords:
political systems, crisis conditions, transformation, comparative analysis, adaptive potential, emergence, institutional consolidation, civil society, political discourse, decentralizationAbstract
The article is devoted to a comparative analysis of transformational processes in political systems under crisis conditions triggered by economic, social, political, or global challenges, such as wars, pandemics, or terrorism. The study highlights the issue of political systems' adaptation to contemporary global turbulence, manifested in wars (e.g., the Russian-Ukrainian war), economic upheavals (e.g., the 2008 global financial crisis, consequences of COVID-19), and political protests (e.g., the Arab Spring, Belarus 2020). In many countries, crises contribute to a retreat from democratic principles toward authoritarianism or hybrid regimes, underscoring the need to study transformation mechanisms for predicting political changes and developing crisis management strategies.The study findings indicate that the key factor in adaptation is institutional consolidation and public trust.Established democracies demonstrate adaptive evolution (Poland, Germany), while transitional systems are prone to revolutionary changes (Ukraine, 2014) or regression to authoritarianism (Egypt, 2013). Content analysis revealed that discursive strategies shape transformation trajectories: in Germany, an emphasis on rationality and solidarity strengthened trust; in Ukraine, narratives of unity are accompanied by polarization; and in Egypt, stability legitimized authoritarianism. Three transformation scenarios were identified–adaptive evolution, revolutionary transformation, and regression to authoritarianism–depending on the balance between institutions, elites, and civil society.The theoretical contribution lies in refining the concepts of «emergence» and «adaptive potential» and developing a transformation assessment model that accounts for crisis types and globalization influences. Practical recommendations include establishing anti-crisis institutions, strengthening decentralization, and fostering civil society.
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