THE ROLE OF ELECTORAL POLITICAL SCIENCE IN THE PREPARATION AND FORECASTING OF POST-WAR ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32689/2523-4625-2026-2(82)-3Keywords:
electoral and applied political science, post-war elections, electoral forecasting, electoral legislation, martial law, public opinion, legitimacy, UkraineAbstract
The article examines the role of electoral political science as a specialised branch of political science in the preparation, scholarly support and forecasting of the first post-war national elections in Ukraine. It is argued that post-war elections will constitute an unprecedented challenge for Ukrainian democracy, as they will take place amid large-scale demographic dislocation (over six million citizens abroad and almost four million internally displaced persons), damaged electoral infrastructure, an outdated State Voter Register, persistent security threats and intense external information interference. The study systematises the principal functions of electoral political science in this context: analytical-diagnostic (monitoring of electoral attitudes and public trust), normative-institutional (scholarly substantiation of electoral law reform in line with the recommendations of the Venice Commission and OSCE/ ODIHR), methodological (adaptation of survey instruments to wartime and migration conditions) and prognostic (construction of scenario models of electoral competition). Drawing on comparative analysis of data from leading polling agencies for 2024–2026, the article characterises the configuration of the potential electoral field, analyses the ratings of probable candidates and develops three scenarios of the post-war electoral process. It is concluded that a two-round presidential contest will most likely produce competition between the incumbent president and a representative of the military-driven demand for renewal, with the outcome determined by election timing, the character of the war’s end, veteran mobilisation and out-of-country voting
References
Birch, S. (2000). Intervening in Africa. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780333977453
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2026). Notes from Kyiv: Is Ukraine preparing for elections? URL: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/02/ukraine-elections-preparation
Civil Network OPORA. (2023). Legal information on the impossibility of holding elections under conditions of martial law. URL: https://oporaua.org/en/vybory/legal-information-on-the-impossibility-of-holding-elections-under-conditions-of-martial-law-24947
Civil Network OPORA. (2025). Why Ukraine can’t hold elections during wartime: An open statement of civil society organisations. Kyiv Independent. URL: https://kyivindependent.com/why-ukraine-cant-holdelections-during-wartime/
Dalton, R. J., & Klingemann, H.-D. (Eds.). (2007). The Oxford handbook of political behavior. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199270125.001.0001
Euromaidan Press. (2026). Ukraine signals election readiness as 59% say wait until war ends. URL: https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/02/11/ukraine-elections-may-2026-impossible/
Hale, H. E. (2015). Patronal politics: Eurasian regime dynamics in comparative perspective. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139683524
Herron, E. S. (2009). Elections and democracy after communism? New York: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230622390
IFES Ukraine, & Civil Network OPORA. (2023). Roadmap for electoral reform in Ukraine – 2023 wartime edition. Kyiv: International Foundation for Electoral Systems. URL: https://ifesukraine.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ifes-ukraine-opora-roadmap-for-electoral-reform-in-ukraine-d7-2023-10-17-eng-1.pdf
Kliuchkovskyi, Y., & Venher, V. (2022). Organisation and holding of elections in post-war Ukraine: Prerequisites and challenges. Strasbourg: Council of Europe. URL: https://rm.coe.int/en-organisation-andholding-of-elections-in-post-war-ukraine-net-2769-/1680a8e995
Kyiv Independent. (2025). Ukraine election poll shows tight first round, decisive Zaluzhnyi runoff win over Zelensky. URL: https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-election-poll-shows-tight-first-round-decisive-zaluzhnyi-runoff-win-over-zelensky/
Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. (2026). Dynamics of trust in political figures and attitudes toward holding elections: December 2025 – January 2026. Kyiv: KIIS. URL: https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1584&page=1
LeDuc, L., Niemi, R. G., & Norris, P. (Eds.). (2014). Comparing democracies 4: Elections and voting in a changing world. London: SAGE Publications. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781473921108
Norris, P. (2014). Why electoral integrity matters. New York: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107280861
Norris, P., & Grömping, M. (2019). Electoral integrity worldwide. Sydney: Electoral Integrity Project. URL: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/58533f31bebafbe99c85dc9b/t/5ce60bd6b208fcd93be49430/1558580197717/Electoral+Integrity+Worldwide.pdf
Prots, A. (2026). Poll: Zelenskyy maintains approval rating, but support for former commander-in-chief Zaluzhnyi has dropped by 9% over the year. URL: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/01/8041952/
Ukrainska Pravda. (2026). Zaluzhnyi confirms readiness to run in autumn presidential election: Details of the meeting with Zelenskyy. URL: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/01/8041868/
Venice Commission. (2002). Code of good practice in electoral matters: Guidelines and explanatory report (CDL-AD(2002)023rev). Strasbourg: Council of Europe. URL: https://docs-venice.coe.int/images/SITE%20IMAGES/Publications/Code_conduite_PREMS%20026115%20GBR.pdf
Wilson Center. (2025). Ukraine’s presidential elections amid war: Political, legal, and security challenges. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. URL: https://www.wilsoncenter. org/blog-post/ukraines-presidential-elections-amid-war-political-legal-and-security-challenges
