THE IMPACT OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR ON CENTRAL ASIA’S ECONOMY. POLISH PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

The invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation on February 24, 2022 and Russia’s desire to conquer the entire territory put the whole world in a difficult situation. The war itself has serious consequences – especially for Ukraine, which is facing the risk of losing its independence. Many people lost their lives fighting for their homeland. The war also affects the condition of the economy in both countries. It can lead to economic losses in the region of Central Europe, Asia, and around the world. Central Asia is one of the regions that has been strongly affected by the consequences of the war and the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West. A region with a strategic location between the two powers, Russia and China, on the border of conflict areas, like Afghanistan or Iran. After the collapse of the USSR, five independent Central Asian republics found themselves in a deep economic crisis. What is more, they were mired in internal conflicts. Therefore, relations between the republics and Russia, mainly in the economy, remain strong. Modern Central Asia is seen as a territory rich in natural resources, which means that its position is constantly growing. The effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war are felt in the economies of Central Asia. Governments are implementing many solutions to mitigate the effects of sanctions imposed on Russia. There are many discussions on this topic at the international level, including in Poland. The article presents selected conclusions of Polish experts on the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the economy of Central Asia. Among them, the collapse of local currencies and distribution routes to Ukraine, which have now become limited due to the war, seem to be extremely important. The depreciation of the currency has led to economic crises in countries, particularly noticeable in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. It is worth mentioning that the war is perceived not only as a threat but also as an opportunity for the region. The negative consequences can be mitigated if the countries of Central Asia take the right steps now.