RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF A CRISIS SITUATION: GENERAL THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS AND THE PUBLIC GOVERNANCE DIMENSION

Abstract

Research Objective. The objective of this study is to substantiate the conceptual unity of risk management and crisis management, and to propose a unified methodological model in which risk functions as an internal phase of a crisis situation. The study also aims to define the methodological foundations for integrating risk management into managerial activities under crisis conditions. Methodology. The research is based on conceptual modeling and an interdisciplinary approach, incorporating systems analysis, scenario modeling, the project life cycle concept, quantitative assessment of residual risk, and the use of logic-graphical models. Scientific Novelty. The scientific novelty lies in the development of an integrated model in which risk is viewed as an internal component of a crisis situation. Instead of the traditional dichotomy between «risk management» and «crisis management», their methodological unity is substantiated: risk is conceptualized as a segment of the crisis process that begins with a triggering event and ends either in a positive outcome or a loss of control. The concept of a «risk-decision» is introduced as a managerial tool that combines proactive analysis with resource-based response readiness. A mathematical model for risk neutralization is proposed: E = C × (1 − η), which enables the quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of crisis response measures. The distinction between active and passive risk management strategies is also elaborated. Conclusions. Risk management cannot be considered in isolation from crisis management. Risk is not only a precondition for a crisis but also an inherent dynamic component of it. The proposed model allows for a reconceptualization of a project as a sequence of crisis situations requiring «risk-decisions», taking into account the variability of event trajectories, available resources, and the level of uncertainty. It is established that effective risk management requires a shift from a declarative to an instrumental approach. Rather than relying on reactive crisis response, it is advisable to implement an active system of managerial decision-making. The proposed practical formulas for residual risk assessment may be applied in the field of public administration.